Lagan Valley: Seat Details
WARNING: This is the page for the old seat. The new seats, which will be used at the next general election, are more relevant. See the new seat of Lagan Valley, or click here to find another new seat.
Lagan Valley: Overview
| MP at 2019: | Jeffrey Donaldson (DUP) |
| County/Area: | Antrim (Northern Ireland) |
| Electorate: | 75,735 |
| Turnout: | 60.0% |
| Party | 2019 Votes | 2019 Share | Pred Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUP | 19,586 | 43.1% | 43.2% |
| Alliance | 13,087 | 28.8% | 28.8% |
| UUP | 8,606 | 19.0% | 19.0% |
| SDLP | 1,758 | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| OTH | 1,270 | 2.8% | 2.6% |
| SF | 1,098 | 2.4% | 2.5% |
| DUP Majority | 6,499 | 14.3% | 14.3% Pred Maj |
| Chance of winning | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| DUP |
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| Alliance |
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| UUP |
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| SDLP |
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| OTH |
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Lagan Valley : Political and Demographic indicators
The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Lagan Valley constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.
The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.
| Indicator | Seat | Northern Ireland | All UK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Party Winner 2019 | DUP | DUP | CON |
| Party Winner 2017 | DUP | DUP | CON |
| Party Winner 2015 | DUP | DUP | CON |
| EU Leave % | 53% | 44% | 52% |
| British Identity | 44% | 32% | 52% |
| Average Age | 49.9 | 49.3 | 49.5 |
| Good Education | 53% | 48% | 49% |
| Employed | 60% | 56% | 58% |
| Homeowner | 75% | 69% | 63% |
| Car owner | 91% | 87% | 77% |
| Married | 51% | 46% | 45% |
| Ethnic White | 97% | 97% | 83% |
| Christian | 74% | 81% | 50% |
| ABC1 Class | 61% | 51% | 55% |
| Average House Price | £180,082 | £148,402 | £308,942 |
Lagan Valley ranks #332 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.
The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.
| Topic | Cat 1 | Cat 2 | Cat 3 | Cat 4 | Cat 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU Leave % | Very Remain | Remain | Balanced | Leave | Very Leave |
| Census | Very Low | Low | Medium | High | Very High |
Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:
| Indicator | Census Question | Definition / Included Census Categories |
|---|---|---|
| Party Winner | – | Area party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus |
| British Identity | National Identity (TS027) | Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British |
| EU Leave % | – | EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate |
| Average Age | Age (TS007A) | Average age of adults (18 years and above) |
| Good Education | Highest level of qualification (TS067) | Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent) |
| Employed | Economic activity status (TS066) | Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed |
| Homeowner | Tenure (TS054) | Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership |
| Car owner | Car or van availability (TS045) | In a household with at least one car or van |
| Married | Legal partnership status (TS002) | Married or civil partnership |
| Ethnic White | Ethnic group (TS021) | White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other |
| Christian | Religion (TS030) | Christian or Christian denomination (NI) |
| ABC1 Class | Approximated Social Grade (SG002) | Approximated social grades A, B and C1 |
| Gross Household Income | – | Median gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling. |
| Deprivation | Households by deprivation dimensions (TS011) | Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating). |
| Average House Price | – | Average residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance |
Lagan Valley: Map
Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Lagan Valley
This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Lagan Valley.
| Lagan Valley | Actual | Predicted | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Ward | Electorate 2019 | GE19 Winner | Pred Winner | |||||||||
| Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon | Donaghcloney | 59 | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon | Dromore | 3,311 | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon | Gransha | 2,608 | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon | Quilly | 3,153 | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Belfast | Belvoir | 336 | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Belfast | Dunmurry | 874 | SF | Alliance | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Ballinderry | 2,795 | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Ballymacash | 2,348 | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Ballymacbrennan | 2,336 | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Ballymacoss | 3,406 | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Blaris | 2,380 | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Derryaghy | 2,835 | Alliance | Alliance | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Dromara | 2,444 | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Drumbo | 2,317 | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Harmony Hill | 2,282 | Alliance | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Hilden | 2,459 | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Hillhall | 2,690 | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Hillsborough | 2,663 | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Knockmore | 2,683 | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Lagan | 2,490 | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Lagan Valley | 2,033 | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Lambeg | 2,473 | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Lisnagarvey | 2,265 | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Maghaberry | 2,965 | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Magheralave | 2,743 | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Maze | 2,299 | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Moira | 2,645 | Alliance | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Old Warren | 2,448 | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Ravernet | 2,381 | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Stonyford | 371 | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Wallace Park | 2,608 | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | White Mountain | 3,871 | DUP | DUP | |||||||||
| Newry, Mourne and Down | Ballyward | 162 | SF | DUP | |||||||||
| Total | 75,733 | DUP | DUP | ||||||||||
Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.